Edited Assessment of 2012 Race for the 66th

In the 2012 66^th Assembly Seat election, Torrance School Board Member Al Muratsuchi won every South Bay city North of PCH. The South Bay has often been known as a socially moderate, fiscally conservative constituency, so why would 53% of voters support a Democrat who ensured a tax-and-spend Democratic supermajority in Sacramento?
 
Some charge that the Republican candidate Craig Huey was too extreme for the South Bay. The Daily Breeze repeated this falsehood in their editorial endorsing Muratsuchi. Of course, to save face and staunch their diminishing influence in South Bay politics, The Daily Breeze editorial board stood by likely winners with losing views and values. Muratsuchi remains to the Left of South Bay voters, and now he has left for Sacramento. Who knows what his record will force on the state and our district during his term in office.
 
Following his unexpected loss, Craig Huey staged a post-mortem meeting to review what went wrong, what went right, and the unexpected which went awry.
 
Was it money that bought the race?
 
California's public sector unions and Muratsuchi's own campaign dumped $3-4 million dollars into this Assembly race. With $6 billion dumped on the losing Republican nationwide campaign, with $7 million coming out of Bill Bloomfield's losing bid for the 33^rd Congressional District, money does not ensure a win, and likely contributed little to Huey's loss.
 
Ideas matter.
 
Not advertisements, but outreach makes all the difference. Craig Huey was a credible candidate, with incredible integrity that tailored his message all kinds of South Bay voters. His message did not reach enough people, nor was his campaign strategy prepared for the Obama-juggernaut to bring out the vote for the incumbent against a lukewarm Republican challenger. Despite former House Speaker Tip O'Neill's assertion that all politics is local, the nation race had a devastating impact on the 66th Assembly race.
 
How did the national race affect the 66^th Assembly race?
 
In two words, Romney sucked. He sucked the life out of winnable races, and the interest from conservative voters, who did not vote (three million did not bother, and now they will be bothered with four more years of Obama). The larger national trends created greater problems for the Huey campaign. No matter how much party leaders insist otherwise, Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney was a weak candidate. Byron York ran the numbers on Romney’s poor showing with Hispanics. Even if he had won George W. Bush margins (44%) or Obama’s 2012 showing (71%), he still would have lost! The GOP turnout out was low, low, low; and the top party brass, which has made winning elections more important than promoting a winning vision to the voting public, trumped their own chances.
 
What about campaign strategy in the South Bay?
 
A stronger Republican operation must engage previous candidates and their efforts. The 2010 Republican candidate for the 36th Congressional District, Mattie Fein,  shared very little interest or support for Craig Huey's 2011 run for Congress, and there was still less for the Huey team to work with for the 66th Assembly District run. This lack of networking among Republicans is unacceptable, a trend which the Beach Cities Republicans and sister groups are combating for the better. No matter how much we differ or disagree with certain candidates, we need to support our man or woman as much as we can.
 
What about the targeted demographics?
 
Too much of Huey’s campaigning focused on older, more propertied voters. Protecting Prop 13 is an admirable platform, but I heard very little about what the Republican candidate or the statewide party were offering for struggling high school and college-age students, many of whom were convinced that without Prop 30’s tax hikes, their education would be more impoverished than ever. I also received very little which touched on the concerns of Hispanic voters -- immigration, the DREAM Act -- or other issues which would invite more inquiry from African-American voters, like school vouchers.
 
Then there’s Gardena. . .
 
According to previous election statistic, the turnout in the Eastern sections of the South Bay has been minimal. This year, those expectations were all wrong. Republican consultants are losing touch with voting trends. One Sacramento Republican commented that Waxman was a shoo-in (he won reelection by five points). Internet, mass media, and intensive word-of-mouth information decimated the previous projections.

Future South Bay campaigns cannot rest on empty assumptions about key demographics. More outreach is needed in Gardena, West Carson, and Harbor City. Republican Party leaders in the South Bay should set up an office in that region, perhaps along Western Ave. (Craig Huey’s business is located there).

Other suggestions

The Republican Party needs to reach out to Michelle Rhee's "Students First" Organization, as well. Stressing school choice would appeal to minority voters. This district still has a fiscally conservative heart beat, and should emphasize fiscal issues for young and older voters. A plan for revitalizing higher education, for localizing spending issues, and a focus on job creation would also help.

With more outreach, and no flailing standard-bearers, the Republicans should do well in 2014 to regain the 66^th Assembly District.